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The future of Linux


pbpersson
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What is the real future of Linux? Will it become a planet-wide OS that everyone will use or will it be the BetaMax of the OS world? You know, Beta was always better but VHS won because it had better marketing.

 

About 80% of the IT people I speak with about Linux say they are ignoring it and hope it will go away. They say they worked for years to learn Windows, they are tired of learning, and they are just MS people. What sort of attitude is that for an IT person? I think if you stop learning you fall behind. I don't understand that entire point of view.

 

All over the web I see these Linux posts saying this will not work and that will not work and you need to type -xgrc -t/erjudre/jjhwusrt -rtud -sjje/er/xs/tf and then it will just work and wasn't that so easy....except then it still does not work. I wonder if these articles will scare people off or convince them that Linux can work if you spend enough hours playing with it - and is that a good thing if Windows by comparison just works out of the box?

 

Back in 1985 when we were all struggling with HIMEM.SYS and MSCDEX.EXE in DOS I'm thinking that if we had a solution in place to instantly eliminate our pain back then that Microsoft Windows might never have been invented. Those of us who are intrepid pioneers and forging ahead with Linux might be paving the way for a brighter future for generations to come......or are we just wasing our time?

 

Oh....say....when you are installing Mandrake 10.1 if you think all the software is free and you should just tell it to install everything on the CDs (it will take up over 5 GB).....don't do that. I did that and the OS would not even boot up. The partition was 37GB so no I was not out of space. I think there must have been some conflicts with the software loading at startup.

 

 

 

Phil

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the future of linux will be to remain the core of distributions/operating systems. i guess you mean linux-based operating systems like mandrake, but okay... let's call it "linux" (makes things easier for now :)).

 

i doubt that they (linux-based distros) will vanish. too many companys and too many users are using "linux" right now. an estimated 5% of the computers is running on linux, just like mac, and mac is still there, too. there is enough room for a variety of operating systems. there are e.g. bsd, sky-os, unix, amiga and others that find their niche and have a lower "spreading-value". so why should linux vanish, once it has established itself? :unsure:

 

sure, not everything works the way it should. but linux is not as "old" as windows or mac as a desktop-system. the first serious efforts for implementing desktops began about some five or seven years ago. and without the financial backing that microsoft has, it is a very good development that is taking place and in some areas it is already ahead of windows. B)

 

many "users" complain that this and that does not work or needs some hacking. well, they are right but once the system runs, it is usually more stable than windows (my experience). but look at windows forums. they also have lots (!) of topics concerning apps not running properly or hardware that is buggy. so saying "linux doesn't work" is not fair. every os has its strenghts and weaknesses and it needs some time to adjust things in order to make the migration as painless as possible.

 

another factor that is forgotten very often is that many windows users are accustomned to windows and think in windows-categories. they actually have to quit thinking in these terms because linux is not windows, although many think that it can be the next windows a perfect stupidity. it is like saying: the next plane you buy can be you next helicopter.

 

and those it-guys you mention: i know a lot of it-technicians who hate windows from the deepest regions of their heart because it is so hard to administrate them (software-updates e.g.). if an it-technician says: he does not want to learn something about linux, then he has failed his job imho. it-persons are expected to learn all the time. it's just like saying: i have administrated windows 3.11, now i don't wanna learn how to administrate windows XP. :screwy:

 

p.s.: "linux" is already a world-wide operating system.

Edited by arctic
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but linux is not as "old" as windows or mac as a desktop-system. the first serious efforts for implementing desktops began about some five or seven years ago. and without the financial backing that microsoft has, it is a very good development that is taking place and in some areas it is already ahead of windows.  B)

 

many "users" complain that this and that does not work or needs some hacking. well, they are right but once the system runs, it is usually more stable than windows (my experience). but look at windows forums. they also have lots (!) of topics concerning apps not running properly or hardware that is buggy. so saying "linux doesn't work" is not fair. every os has its strenghts and weaknesses and it needs some time to adjust things in order to make the migration as painless as possible.

 

 

 

 

actually linux has been arround since windows 3.1 multi-media (1991). it did have X and some WM's, but nothing like today. rpm's and linuxconf hadnt been developed yet. certainly no urpmi, apt, emerge or what not had not been developed.

 

linux has made some real efforts in the past five years to become more user friendly. back in 1991 and until recently alot of gui tools were either not available or hadnt been developed. today we have yast, or mcc, whatever your distro uses (similar to the windows control panel).

 

i suppose the hard part in linux can be gettting things to "work". most often its a config script. thats the bigest hurdle for windows users to cross. that and dependancies. (which is why apt, urpmi, emerge and so on make a huge difference).

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uh, guys...

 

it already has caught on...look at all the governments that have been switching to it lately. look at MS out there marketing so hard against it. look at IBM, Novell, and so forth, big players that are supporting it.

 

"will it catch on" has been answered. when will home users catch on is the next question.

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tymarks got it

 

what corp or country, in their right mind, is going to upgrade their nt servers to the latest win server and pay the untold amount of fees when they can have the best....free... and pay a linux admin a lot less than win admin? France didn't ;)

 

I've heard the techies that don't like lin but the reason I've been told is the truth. Lin puts them out of work ;) ...unless they want to learn lin :banana:

 

oh and that 5%...a lot higher...think about what that statistic is based on and you'll realize there's a lot more of us out there :headbang:

Edited by bvc
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The failure of beta-max was NOT because of not enough marketing.

It was because SONY was greedy and thought it could pull off a lock-in a-la Microsoft. SONY owned the patents on beta-max and said that ALL Video equipment manufacturers would have to pay a substantial royalty to use it.

 

On the other hand, Philips and JVC and others had developed the VHS Videotape Player as we know it today. Philips also owned the patents on the tape cassettes as well (including Audio also) Sony was invited to take part and become involved with the group. The rehashed beta-max even used Philips royalty free patents for its cassettes.

SONY said no, it was to be its Beta-max or not at all.

 

So that a standard could and would be set for the manufacturing industry, Philips decided to make its VHS and Cassettes patents royalty free (same as it did later with CD discs and DVD discs).

Naturally the equipment manufacturers jumped at the opportunity. Some decided to also manufacture beta-max as well but abandoned it because the units finished up being too costly.

 

Todays irony ??? SONY manufactures VHS Video Players using the same royalty free patents it spurned all those years ago.

The argument about beta-max being the superior technology comes mostly from SONY or their syncophants and is largely ignored in the engineering world.

 

Guess who dreamed up the idea of that obnoxious system called Zoning for DVDs ???

Do you give up ??? Yes it was good old SONY.

 

So putting LINUX in the same characterization as Beta-Max is misguided.

LINUX is about fairness, quality, community. SONY is NOT about fairness and community and even its quality which is good is savagely overpriced for what it is.

 

Sony could ultimately fail as all greedy companys usually do.

 

LINUX will continue to grow because EVERYONE owns it yet NO ONE owns it.

Despite software patents etc big business will NEVER be able to stop LINUX.

If some countries block it, it will still flourish elsewhere, somewhere.

Don't worry if it doesn't reach the big time. I believe it will. Just feel sorry for the idiots that refuse to use it and pity those that do not know any better.

Just enjoy your LINUX. So endith todays sermon.

 

 

 

Cheers. JOHN.

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Linux in all forms is and has vastly imporved and will continue to do so, like its been said IBM and Novell are now pushing linux harder than ever.

 

The main "problem" is the normal household desktop user as there is often some manual configuration to do which puts people off. I think that another problem is the fact that most disrtos come with everything like OO which is strange in a way as you expect to have to install it after coming from M$ world.

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:headbang:

 

LINUX will continue to grow because EVERYONE owns it yet NO ONE owns it.

Despite software patents etc big business will NEVER be able to stop LINUX.

If some countries block it, it will still flourish elsewhere, somewhere.

Don't worry if it doesn't reach the big time. I believe it will. Just feel sorry for the idiots that refuse to use it and pity those that do not know any better.

Just enjoy your LINUX.      So endith todays sermon.

 

 

 

Cheers.                          JOHN.

Nice post John :D

 

(all of it but I especially like the last part.... and I never ever buy Sony...)

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Linux is certainly not going to take over the desktop market any

time soon, and I will tell you a couple of stories to explain

why.

 

I run Quanta+ to update my web pages. It is a terrific tool. I

especially like the upload manager, which looks at file change

times and knows which files to upload. However, there is a bug

in the Quanta+ version that came with Mandy 9.1. The project

file is not updated properly upon exit, so some files get stuck

as "changed" when, indeed, they have actually been uploaded since

the change. Those files are then doomed to be uploaded again and

again...every time I do an upload.... in perpetuity. This bug

makes the upload feature largely useless.

 

So, I contacted the folks who work on Quanta and asked about the bug.

The answer was to upgrade my Quanta+. This is a fair answer, because

that is how bugs get fixed.... in later releases.

 

So off I went to upgrade Quanta. To make a really long and frustrating

story short, it appears that it is impossible to upgrade Quanta

without upgrading my entire distro! I tried a later RPM and that

failed on dependencies of core utilities like GTK and KDE. Then

I downloaded the source and tried to build the app. I was dumped

immediately into Dependency Hell and started installing development

tools from my distro CD's. After several hours of that, I ran into

a fatal compile error, and the solution was to do a CVS make to

get the latest, after which, Make itself would do nothing but bail

out with errors. I worked for hours on this problem and failed

miserably in the end.

 

I finally "fixed" my problem by writing a program myself, which

I call "qtouch" that will parse a Quanta+ project file and

touch all of the upload times. I now happily use my Quanta+ to

edit my files and upload the modified files to my host. Then

I run qtouch on the project file to make it all new again.

 

Yay! Problem solved. I love my Quanta+ again.

 

However, how many desktop users out there in the world would

be willing to go through all of that just to use an app? How many

desktop users out there would even understand what I have just

been talking about? How many desktop users out there are capable

of writing a C program to hack an XML project file to fix an

application bug? XML? What the heck is XML? C? What the heck is C?

 

Here is a hypothetical situation about finding a similar

problem on an fnWindows system..... (don't get me wrong here,

I am NOT promoting fnWindows, which I hate... but the truth is

the truth.....)

 

1) A user has an application on fnWindoze that s/he likes.

2) App has a major show-stopper bug.

3) User asks about it and the answer is "upgrade"

4) User downloads later version and installs it ... problem solved

 

I am no fan of fnWindows, but fnWindoze application upgrades

often get installed with a minimum of heartburn (or they trash

your entire system, but hey.....).

 

The fnWindows application writers take great pains to make their upgrades

backward compatible. In fact a clean application that is written to

run on Win32 API will often install and run on many versions of

fnWindoze with no problems. I have written some applications like

that myself. Win32API is Win32API. Unless the app writer has been

stupid enough to demand the latest "features" of the latest

fnWindoze, the programs are pretty portable.

 

You will often see a list of system requirements for an application

that will be like this:

 

"Requires:

Win98, Win98SE, WinNT, Win2000, WinXP....

 

What is the point of all this? Well here it is. Until the developers

and distributors of Linux systems... that is.... entire systems, including

the desktop software and development software and connectivity

software...... have stabilized the system and FROZEN it....... so that

later versions of apps can be successfully installed on older versions

of it..... WITHOUT major upgrades to the system..... and until the

writers of applications make use of STABLE system utilities that do

not change from application release to application release......the Linux

desktop is doomed to be the playground ONLY of dedicated hackers.

 

The basic core systems of Linux desktops are changing fast. When

the application writers demand that the latest and greatest

features of the latest and greatest desktops be there in order

for the program to run, the applications will not be backward

compatible. Hence it will be impossible to upgrade them to fix

simple bugs.

 

I have a similar tale to tell about Audacity, which crashes any time

I try to set the preferences. The "fix" is to upgrade to the next

version, which cannot be done. The workaround is to edit the .Audacity

file using gvim in order to set my preferences. I cannot even *explain*

this to my fnWindoze-lovin' friends much less convince them that it is

the way to go.

 

In fact, I cannot remember being able to successfully upgrade ANY

Linux application on my Mandy 9.1 without running into serious dependency

problems with some CORE utility in the system. If it did not come

on the Mandy 9.1 distro disks, it will not install and run. This is

not a big problem for me because I find workarounds for bugs and continue on.

This IS a problem for the computing public because they do not have the

time/desire/ability to hack at their apps to keep them working,

or re-install the entire software system, which is a daunting prospect.

 

Let me state once again that I am NOT proposing fnWindoze as a

superior system. I hate it, and I will not go back to it. It is

snake-oil that is sold by money-grubbing, dishonest people whose

only purpose is to separate us from our money and inflict themselves

on our private lives and information. It crashes frequently and

puts the work that I have done on it at risk as well as putting

my personal information at risk to every bopper-hacker out there

with access to the internet.

 

HOWEVER, if Linux is going to compete for the general desktop market

it MUST provide a stable platform that allows people to fix

problems in their systems without being presented with an

incomprehensible list of alphabet soup gibberish that effectively

re-installs their entire system using cryptic tools that they never

heard of and do not care about.

 

So, to the fine folks who wrote Quanta+, my deepest thanks for

a great tool. But a word of advice if they want to make it a

broadly used tool.... stop upgrading it by using the latest,

greatest, whiz-bangedest new fangledest GTK/KDE/kernel/ features

on every dang release! Write the darn thing to use a stable

platform that will be around for a while. Write it to use straight

X-11R6 or something! More work? You bet! But once a mainstream

user finds a bug in their tool and then finds that the fix involves

six pages of unintelligible gibberish that puts their entire system

in danger...... they will simply dump the app in the trash and look

for a different app. I did. I have looked at Bluefish

and some others. They do not compare well to Quanta+.

Yikes, I have even considered just going back

to typing my HTML into gvim and uploading with gftp!

 

Sorry if I wrote a book-long rant. But I really like my Linux

and I would like to see it become a bit more user-friendly for

people who do not understand the complex inner-workings of

the system. The mass market desktop is totally out of reach for

Linux systems because of these issues.

 

I am now going back into Lurk Mode with my Nomex underwear on.

 

Linux rocks!

 

Banjo

(_)=='=~

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Gowator,

 

Thanks for the pointer. I will go check it out. I know nothing about Debian.

Also, my system is in use by the whole family, and they are wary of me

making major changes to it. Down time is difficult to schedule.

 

I do not know what is involved with a distro switch or a major upgrade.

Do you have any pointers to ideas about the best way to upgrade the system

while preserving the current application/user base? I might move to Mandy

10 if it did not involve any huge sacrifices.

 

Banjo

(_)=='=~

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and how many desktop users need a quanta?

how many dt users even install the os? they don't....they run it til they can run it any longer and have spread 100 virus's and pay someone else to fix it. Point is, they can just pay me to fix it now, instead of a window washer ;)

 

i don't get everyones prob with upgrades whether rpm or deb

they are both easy

the only questional part for a n00b is setting up the sources. after that it's all the click clicka mousie mouse, every bit as much as win

Edited by bvc
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Quanta was just the app I have been working with lately.

The same problems apply to more mainstream apps like OpenOffice

and browsers.

 

Maybe I am just doing it wrong. The pointy clicky fire-off rpm is pretty

easy to figure out. Right after that, I get a bunch of finger-wags from the

system saying "Nope. You can't do that." That is what happened with both

the Quanta and the Audacity.

 

Urpmi is still a blackbox for me. I'm not sure how to use it properly.

Last time I looked at the recommended sources, I could not find the

upgrade packages I was looking for. I have lost the details of that

adventure. What sources do you use?

 

I also have seen a pointer on this board about how to set up Easy Urpmi,

but I have lost that as well.

 

Banjo

(_)=='=~

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